Every $5 Rise in Oil Price Risks Cutting Aid to 40,000 Children, Save the Children Estimates

LONDON (April 16, 2026) – Every US$5 increase per barrel of oil triggered by conflict in the Middle East could wipe out the equivalent of one month of life-saving humanitarian aid for nearly 40,000 children, according to a new projection by Save the Children.

This remains the case despite the conditional ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran, with oil prices remaining highly volatile. Save the Children modelled the increase in commodity prices due to rising oil costs and estimated the potential effects on its global aid delivery.

The projection found that every US$5 rise in the price of oil above pre-conflict projections could add an extra US$340,000 per month to Save the Children’s shipping, fuel, food and medical supplies costs. Using Save the Children’s estimate of $8.86 per child per month to provide essential services, the cost increase is the equivalent of the cost of one month of aid for nearly 40,000 children.

Prior to the conflict, oil was projected at about US$60 per barrel for 2026.  More than six weeks in, and despite the conditional ceasefire, prices have surged, disrupting global energy, trade and supply chains, and increasing the cost of food, fuel and medicine worldwide needed to treat child malnutrition and provide displaced families in conflict zones with essential supplies.

Humanitarian organizations build their annual budgets based on global inflation forecasts and projected commodity costs, with Save the Children's 2026 procurement budget set before the conflict began.

The model is a high-level projection, and the full effect may not be felt immediately or everywhere at once due to existing stock in warehouses and the use of alternative routes and means of financing.

However, Save the Children is already seeing the consequences where supply chains are vulnerable, such as in Yemen, where shipping costs have already increased more than 20% in some cases.

In Somalia, which is dependent on food imports and food aid making up over 70% of the food consumed, essential commodity prices across Somalia have increased by at least 20% according to the World Food Program.

As oil prices increase, that means fewer supplies to treat severe malnutrition, fewer hygiene kits reaching displacement camps battling cholera outbreaks, and fewer blankets and tents for families who have fled with nothing.

For children already living in crisis, it could mean the difference between life and death. Beyond rising costs, aid already in transit is being directly disrupted.

The ongoing conflict across the Middle East and wider region is obstructing key delivery routes for Save the Children's humanitarian supplies, delaying lifesaving medical shipments blocked in Dubai for at least 410,000 children across Sudan, Afghanistan and Yemen.

Willem Zuidema, Save the Children’s Global Supply Chain Director, said:

“Every US$5 rise in oil prices comes at a human cost. This conflict is having grave ramifications for children living in some of the most dangerous places on earth - where children depend on humanitarian aid to simply survive. Even with the conditional ceasefire agreement, oil prices remaining highly volatile, and shipping costs are likely to remain high given fragility and risks.  

“We are being squeezed from both ends. While world leaders are cutting aid budgets, conflict is driving up the cost of every shipment, every sachet of food, every medical kit we send. There are no buffers in the system. We are being asked to do more with less, while paying more for everything.

“Every extra dollar we have to spend due to the higher oil prices, is a dollar we are not spending on the children who need us.”

Save the Children is calling on all parties to the conflict to adhere to their obligations under international humanitarian law, including by facilitating the unimpeded passage of humanitarian assistance to children.

Save the Children is the world’s largest independent child rights organization, reaching tens of millions of children annually in about 110 countries through its work to save and improve children’s lives.

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Notes:

• Save the Children modelled the increase in price to key humanitarian supply categories due to rising oil prices. Those supplies include food, medical supplies, other procured goods, fuel, freight, and shipping costs. The projection is based on publicly available data on the relationship between oil prices, commodity costs and shipping inflation, including World Bank, IMF, and European Parliament, and applied to the organization's internal 2026 procurement budget that is based on a pre-conflict oil price baseline of US$60 per barrel for 2026.  
• Every US$5 increase above that baseline is estimated to add about US$340,000 to Save the Children’s monthly humanitarian supply and delivery costs. The 40,000 children figure is derived from Save the Children's internal procurement data, which estimates an average cost of about US$8.86 to reach and support one child for one month with essential humanitarian supplies. At about US$340,000, this represents the equivalent of one month of support for nearly 40,000 children.
• All figures are indicative estimates based on current market conditions and are subject to change as the situation develops. The full effect may not be felt immediately or everywhere at once due to existing warehouse stock, the use of alternative delivery routes, and efforts to secure alternative financing.